ATLANTIC COAST & LONG ISLAND SOUND
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Migration Forecast · Premium
Unlock each town’s Local Fall Run Progression and migration status, the migration forecast, arrival estimates and 15-mile/day research projection. One-time payment: $1.99. No subscription. Lifetime access.
Already purchased? Use Purchase & Access to restore your purchase or enter your VIP code.STRIPER SWIM TIMES · RESEARCH MODEL
Migration Forecast
Follow the fall run from Boston to New Jersey as ocean temperatures cool.
62°FBOSTON TRIGGER · 7-DAY AVG
Connecting to NOAA offshore buoys…
NOAA Boston offshore buoy
NOAA Sandy Hook offshore buoy
NOAA LBI offshore buoy
NOAA offshore water temperatures, with station and observation time.
1 · NORTHERN TRIGGERChecking NOAA…Checking dated NOAA Boston buoy observations…Boston 62°F cooling trigger. NOAA's seven-day average identifies when the modeled southbound migration begins.
2 · INITIAL TRAVEL ESTIMATE15 miles per dayA baseline used to estimate when the leading edge of the migration may reach each coastal town.
3 · LOCAL MIGRATION PROGRESSIONDriven by ocean temperaturesAfter estimated arrival, each town's own oceanfront water temperature trend, measured using a seven-day average, helps estimate how far the main fall migration has progressed.
SANDY HOOK · ESTIMATED ARRIVALAwaiting trigger date275 miles from Boston
LONG BEACH ISLAND · ESTIMATED ARRIVALAwaiting trigger date335 miles from Boston
Checking historical Boston offshore buoy observations for an automatic trigger…
See the science behind our 62°F trigger.
Striper Tracker uses NOAA readings and predictive fishing models. Migration timing is an estimate.
OUR METHODOLOGYExplore the NOAA checkpoints behind our fall-run forecast
We follow regional ocean cooling to estimate the timing and progress of the southbound striped bass migration. These are modeled indicators, not reports of observed fish locations.
01
NORTHERN EARLY WARNING
Portland, ME (44007) and Jeffreys Ledge (44098): upstream water-temperature trends give advance context. Cooling here does not by itself start the forecast.
02
BOSTON DEPARTURE REFERENCE
Massachusetts Bay (44013): our primary forecast trigger is a seven-day average at or below 62°F, on or after October 1. It is a model assumption, not a direct fish detection.
03
CAPE COD BAY CHECK
Cape Cod Bay (44090): supporting regional cooling information, not an independent proof that the run has started.
04
SOUTHBOUND TEMPERATURE CHECKS
New York Harbor (44065) and Barnegat (44091): offshore readings provide context for provisional timing adjustments as the model projects the run south.
05
ARRIVAL WINDOWS BY TOWN
The baseline projection starts at 15 miles per day and includes an uncertainty range. Town statuses describe estimated migration timing, not guaranteed fish presence.
06
NO AUTOMATIC BAY-FISH BONUS
Stripers in rivers, back bays and juvenile nurseries do not automatically increase ocean-coast migration forecasts.
NOAA observations are measurements; the migration timing calculations are research-informed estimates. Wind, moon, tides, bait and local knowledge help anglers decide how to fish.
